As global temperatures climb, the risk of armed conflict is expected to increase substantially, according to experts across several fields.

In June 2019 Stanford University published an article [1] investigating how much climate change affects the risk of armed conflict. They cited a study published in the journal Nature [2] which said that intensifying climate change will increase the future risk of violent armed conflict within countries.

Synthesizing views across experts, the study estimated climate has influenced between 3% and 20% of armed conflict risk over the last century and that the influence will likely increase dramatically.

There are several articles in the periodical Weather, Climate and Society published by the American Meteorological Society [3], dealing with similar topics for example Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria by Peter Gleick [4].

References

[1] Stanford-led study investigates how much climate change affects the risk of armed conflict, June 12, 2019, https://news.stanford.edu/2019/06/12/climate-change-cause-armed-conflict/

[2] Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict, Nature 12 June 2019, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1300-6

[3] Weather, Climate and Society, https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/journals/weather-climate-and-society/

[4] Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria, Peter H. Gleick, 1 July 2014: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wcas/6/3/wcas-d-13-00059_1.xml